By Marc Kaufman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 31, 2008
The persistent and dramatic decline in the snowpack of the mountains of the West is caused primarily by human-induced global warming and not the result of natural variability of weather patterns in the region, researchers reported today.
Using data collected over the past 50 years, the scientists confirmed that the mountains are getting more rain and less snow, that the snowpack is breaking up faster, and that more rivers are running dry by summer.
The study, published online today by the journal Science, looked at possible causes of the changes — including natural variability in temperatures and precipitation, volcanic activity around the globe and climate change driven by the release of greenhouse gases. Their computer models showed that the explanation that best fit the data was clearly climate change.
“We’ve known for decades that the hydrology of the West is changing, but for much of that time people said it was because of Mother Nature and that she would return to the old patterns in the future,” said lead author Tim Barnett of the University of California at San Diego. “But we have found very clearly that global warming has done it, that it is the mechanism that explains the change, and that things will be getting worse.”
The mountain snowpack is crucial to many in the West and Southwest who depend on its springtime melt for power, irrigation and drinking water. When the snow fields melt earlier and more suddenly, downstream dams are able to capture less of the water and must release more of it in springtime torrents that flow on to the ocean.
“Our results are not good news for those living in the western United States,” the researchers wrote, adding that the changes may make “modifications to the water infrastructure of the western U.S. a virtual necessity.”
The paper is part of what has become a steady drumbeat of dire predictions based on reports of quickening climate change. Last week, the American Geophysical Union, a leading professional group in the field, issued a statement that “Earth’s climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming.”
“Many components of the climate system — including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons — are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century,” the organization said in its strongest statement to date on the subject.
While the decline of the western snowpack over the past few decades has been documented before, today’s study is the most definitive in assigning the blame to human-induced climate change.
Barnett said his team used computer models to assess what natural climate variability, sunspots, volcanoes and climate change could do to the snowpack. The climate change model best matched the actual trends from 1950 to 1999.
The chance that the model is incorrect, he said, is somewhere between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000.
“We’re very confident that warming from greenhouse gases is the cause,” he said.
The result of the warming, he said, is that the flow of water downstream will become concentrated in a shorter time and will fill up reservoirs more quickly. As a result, more water will have to be released when dams reach their safety levels and will continue on to the sea rather than being available for drinking, irrigation and industry.
“Given the amount of carbon in the air and the trends for future releases, we have to expect that conditions will get progressively worse for some time, no matter what we do now,” he said.
Researchers have also predicted that the Southwest will most likely get less rainfall as a result of changed atmospheric conditions caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases. Since that area gets much of its water from the Colorado River — which is one of the rivers affected by the reduced snowpack — the area could be in for a substantially drier future, he said.
January 31st, 2008
(Helena, MT – October 17) Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and John Warner (R-VA) will introduce comprehensive, bipartisan climate change legislation tomorrow that would cap and cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions while protecting the economy and American consumers.
“Congress now has a comprehensive bill in place that will achieve meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas pollution,” said Diego Rivas of Montanans for a Healthy Climate. “This bill should get a serious look from those in Washington, including and especially our Montana delegation.”
America’s Climate Security Act would, according to the bill sponsors, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 19 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, a strong target that helps put the U.S. on the path to much deeper reductions by the middle of the century. Responding to environmental concerns, the Senators tightened their short-term target from earlier proposals.
The centerpiece of the bill is a mandatory cap on emissions from the electric power, transportation, and manufacturing sectors, coupled with emissions trading provisions that will help companies meet the cap at the lowest cost. The bill also contains commercial and residential energy efficiency standards that will contribute to its long-term goal of reducing U.S. emissions by as much as 63 percent in 2050.
“Climate science dictates that we must reduce global warming pollution by 80% by 2050,” said Rivas. “While this bill doesn’t quite get us there, it puts us on the right path in the short term so that we may more easily meet these requirements in the long term.”
Montana’s delegation will surely play an important role as this bill makes its way through Congress. To start, the bill will first go through the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on which Senator Max Baucus sits.
“We hope that Senator Baucus not only supports America’s Climate Security Act but also plays a leadership role ensuring that the bill receives broad support from the Senate. Montanans are ready for this bill,” said Rivas.
Montanans for a Healthy Climate, a grassroots campaign with over 400 statewide members, has been pushing for a federal cap on carbon dioxide emissions since its inception in 2005.
October 19th, 2007
The following article by Kim Briggeman of the Missoulian pretty much sums it up:
Hello, blessed August. What took you so long?
Western Montana - indeed, much of the western United States - has finally wiped its brow of the hottest July on record.
“We broke practically every July record we have for heat,” meteorologist Trent Smith of the National Weather Service in Missoula confirmed Tuesday.
The sweaty statistics:
An average high temperature of 96.6 degrees through Monday. That was a whopping 2.5 degrees warmer than July 1960, in the heat of the Cold War and the city’s previous hottest month.
Just one day when the thermometer didn’t reach 90. We’ll look back warmly on Thursday, the 19th, when it topped out at a grab-the-parka 87.
Eleven, count ‘em, days of 100-degree (or better) temperatures. The most recent was Sunday, when triple-digit readings mixed with smoke in the valleys from an outburst of wildfires.
An all-time record high of 107 degrees on July 6, so hot the statue of the World War I doughboy at the Missoula County Courthouse was seen fanning himself with his helmet. The previous standard of 105 was reached five times, a couple of them before the official thermometer was moved from a downtown bank building to the comparatively cooler climes near the runway at Missoula International Airport.
The first 18 days of July reached 90 degrees or higher, as did the final 12. The first streak equals a record set in 1960. The second ranks fourth.
Six daily heat records: on July 5, 6, 14, 15, 18 and 29.
The heat, of course, came riding tandem with extremely dry conditions. Smith, confident that no rain (or snow, for that matter) would fall after a midafternoon conversation, said Missoula would finish July with just 0.03 of an inch of precipitation.
We tried, but we couldn’t top the 0.02 of an inch in 1919. “But that puts us in second,” Smith said.
July isn’t known for its rain, but the norm is significantly higher - 1.04 inch.
The National Weather Service issued a public information statement Monday, which listed a number of streams in western Montana and northern Idaho that are already approaching record low flows.
The South Fork of the Clearwater River in Idaho is already there. For the past 11 days, it has been below the previous low, set in 1973, of 187 cubic feet per second. On Monday, it was down to 160 cfs.
The Bitterroot River reached its record low flow on July 20, dropping below the 541 cfs at one point in the summer of 2000.
Neither the Clark Fork at Missoula nor the Blackfoot at Bonner are threatening records, but they’re both moving slow. The Clark Fork on Tuesday was at 1,640 cfs, some 1,000 cfs below normal but nearly twice the record low of 880 in 1931.
The Blackfoot was at 628 cfs. The median flow is 1,050, the record 397 was set in 1988.
Virtually all of western Montana’s streams have total or afternoon restrictions for fishing, another rare occurrence in July.
The irony of it all is that six weeks ago, Montana appeared to be shaking eight years of drought.
Blame it on a ridge of “real high pressure” that arrived early and stayed much longer than usual, said Smith.
Said ridge wasn’t just picking on us either. Bozeman, Great Falls, Helena and Cut Bank all set July records for 90-degree days. Temperatures reached 110 degrees in Miles City on consecutive days (July 23 and 24) for the first time.
From Reno, Nev., to Boise to Edmonton, Alberta, July heat records were either set or approached. The Dakotas, Minnesota and western Iowa were nailed as well, though farther south and east on the Great Plains, temperatures were below normal in many places.
“All weather in the world is related,” Smith said. “There were just extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans that caused an amplification of the ridge over us.”
There are various theories on why, he added. “The biggest one is potentially global warming. But to nail an exact cause as to why this has occurred … we’re not 100 percent sure.”
The good news, at least for the Missoula region, was that the major fires held off until last weekend. And, as of midnight, July was over.
Highs will stay in the 90s for the next few days, according to the National Weather Service, then slip to the mid-80s over the weekend. The bureau is even breathing those welcome words, “chance of showers,” in its forecasts for week’s end.
Other forecasters call for highs in the upper 70s by early next week, though not Smith.
“Usually when we’ve had these really hot Julys, there’s a better chance than normal that we’ll have a cooler August,” Smith said. “But that’s just about three-fifths of the time. So there’s still the potential that we’ll see a very warm August, but there’s a good chance we’ll see a cooler month.”
August 2nd, 2007
In its Sunday, July 29th editorial, the Helena Independent Record took aim at coal, making an apparently novel argument that maybe it isn’t the wave of the future as some may think. The reason? Climate change and impending legislation:
According to a front-page Wall Street Journal story last week, plans for coal plants are falling by the wayside from coast to coast because conventional coal-fired plants are seen as too dirty and cleaner plants are seen as too expensive.
The main problem has to do with the nearly universal scientific acceptance that human activities — especially production of carbon dioxide — are spurring global warming. With global warming doubters increasingly relegated to the status of evolution deniers, the threat of climate change has become politically powerful and is putting more and more plans for new generating plants on the shelf.
The editorial summarizes the failure of proposed new coal plants across the country, many due to lack of financing as investors are wary of the imminent federal cap on carbon dioxide - as soon as Congress catches up to the rest of the people.
Click here to write a letter to Senator Baucus urging action in Congress - specifically a federal cap on CO2!
July 30th, 2007
Lorna Thackeray of the Billings Gazette reports, “If Montana and Wyoming were independent nations, troops would be lined up at the border waiting for an order to fire.”
The issue at hand? Water.
“At stake are the troubled waters of the Tongue and Powder rivers that rise in the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming and flow across the state line into reservoirs and irrigated fields in Montana.
“During drought years, and there seem to be more and more of them, the Yellowstone River tributaries can’t provide enough water to meet demands on either side of the line.”
(click picture for larger image)
As such, Montana has filed suit against Wyoming, asking the U.S. Supreme Court to interpret the Yellowstone River Compact of 1950 and divide the waters accordingly. “Violation of a treaty is one of the classic occurrences giving rise to war,” states the lawsuit. As Thackeray points out, “Wars have been fought for less.”
Thackeray also mentions a crucial element in this skirmish - climate change. Along with increased use, “what did we know five decades ago about global warming that would raise the average temperature in the West 2 degrees by 2006 and melt snowpack two to three weeks earlier?”
As pointed out by Wyoming, the lawsuit if likely to cost Montana and Wyoming taxpayers millions of dollars in litigation fees, an easy counter to those naysayers who say that doing something about global warming, mainly capping carbon dioxide emissions from major emitters, will cost too much. It’s clear that the impacts, in all its forms, will cost much more.
This is just one story of how climate change is having an impact on Montana and the entire Western United States. The article concludes with a quote from Mary Sexton, director of Montana’s Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (DNRC) - “It’s a heated issue all over the West, and it’s likely to stay that way.”
For more information on how climate change in impacting water supply in Montana, check out our documentary, Montana’s Water Problem: Climate Change Under the Big Sky. Links can be found in the right hand side bar or send us an email for a DVD copy - info@mthealthyclimate.com
May 21st, 2007
May 2, 2007 (Washington, DC) - Two Montana college students had breakfast with
Senator Max Baucus in Washington, DC this morning, using the time to deliver a symbol of expected action in Congress with regards to global warming. The students, one each from the University of Montana and Montana State University, brought with them “carbon caps” - baseball-style caps that read “CAP Carbon.” Carbon dioxide is the leading contributor to human-caused climate change and the students are representatives of a larger campaign calling for federal action to reduce carbon emissions.
“Congress must cap carbon emissions if we are going to solve this problem,” said Anna Stern, a junior at the University of Montana and organizer of Grizzlies Responding to Warming Locally, or G.R.W.L. “Montanans know that and that’s why we’re here. We’re hopeful that these caps will convince Montana’s senior senator to become a leader on the climate change issue.”
Montana’s junior senator, Jon Tester, was also in attendance at the breakfast.
“Both senators were highly receptive and supportive of our campaign,” said Josh Jane, representative from Bozeman for a Healthy Climate. “Senator Baucus was stressing his excitement over the youth in Montana becoming concerned about the problem, and Senator Tester stressed that he would be very active in the future as well.”
Last month, Baucus spoke about climate change during a Environment and Public Works Committee hearing. “Climate change is real, it is man made, and the need for action is urgent,” Baucus said. “An economy wide cap and trade program is needed,” Baucus continued.
The carbon caps are part of an online campaign on the social-networking website known as Facebook. Montanans for a Healthy Climate, along with campus chapters G.R.W.L and Bozeman for a Healthy Climate, started a group on the site entitled Hey Max, put a CAP on it! 1,000 Montanans Against Global Warming. The group reached its goal of 1,000 members in just over two weeks.
“One thing that was really interesting was when we were meeting with Baucus and Tester we also ran into a young woman from Montana who was going to college in Washington, DC. She had heard about and signed up with our Facebook campaign and was really excited to see that we were there presenting the caps to Senator Baucus,” commented Stern.
Each carbon cap represents 10 members of the online group; with over one thousand members, one hundred caps were made, or one for each United States Senator. “Not only will we be demonstrating our concern to Montana’s delegation, but to senators from the entire country, that Montanans are concerned about climate change and we want to see some action from Congress,” said Jane. “The carbon caps signify real people from all walks of life, from all over the state. That’s pretty hard to ignore.”
Stern and Jane also took in a hint of D.C. life during their journey. Having dinner on the outside patio of a local restaurant on Capitol Hill, the students were in awe as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stopped at the corner to pick up some groceries. “I guess they have to eat too,” commented Jane. The students were also able to squeeze in a tour of the Capitol Building and some local site-seeing, such as the White House and U.S. Supreme Court Building during their brief visit.
“It was great to see students being able to take the lead on such an important issue,” said Diego Rivas of Montanans for a Healthy Climate. “They accomplished so much in such a short period of time. They are the ones that are going to make a difference – they already have. And I think they enjoyed themselves as well.”
Reflecting back on the campaign upon their departure from DC, the students were optimistic that Congress would take action. “The ball is in their court,” concluded Stern. “We’ve done our part, now it’s time for them to do theirs.”
May 7th, 2007
More likely to support candidates who favor reducing greenhouse gas pollution
Helena, Mont. (March 27, 2007) – Citing global warming and climate change as the number one environmental concern, a new statewide poll released today shows broad-based support for federal action to solve the problem. The poll, commissioned by Montanans for a Healthy Climate and conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, Incorporated, is the newest figure showing Montana’s support for a federal cap-and-trade program.
“It’s clear that climate change is on the minds of Montanans,” said Diego Rivas of Montanans for a Healthy Climate. “But what’s even more important is that even the minority who may be skeptical about climate change being man-made support a national cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. There are benefits all around with this type of system.”
The poll found that nearly two-thirds (63%) of Montana voters favor a federal cap on carbon dioxide emissions, while only 26% opposed the idea. Voters were also 51% more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the cap-and-trade proposal, with 24% responding they would be less likely to support that candidate.
The poll also found that the potential benefit to wind power development was the most widely supported reason to favor a federal carbon cap. This was followed by concern for the livelihood of future generations.
On the flip side, Montanans did not respond as resoundingly to potential changes to Montana’s water supply, perhaps the direst of the climate change impacts on the state.
“It seems as though while Montanans are concerned about our changing climate, they have a more positive reaction toward what can be done to solve the problem. They see room for innovation,” said Rivas.
The poll, conducted February 23-27, 2007, was taken among 504 likely Montana voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
Congress is currently working on legislation to place limits on carbon emissions. Montana Senator Max Baucus, who sits on the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) and chairman of the Finance Committee, will play a key role in future climate legislation. Last week, during an EPW hearing on climate change, Senator Baucus stated his support for cap-and-trade, concluding “[w]hile action is not without cost, the costs of inaction are far greater.” Montanans agree.
Click here to view the polling memo from the pollster
March 27th, 2007
From the Helena IR, March 21st, 2007:
She may be a 21-year-old [junior] at Carroll College, but Crystine Miller has been around long enough to tell stories that sound remarkably similar to those told at the bingo parlor on Friday nights.
“I remember staying home from school for several days in a row because there was so much snow,” said Miller, a Lewistown native. “Now, of course, that doesn’t happen. The winters aren’t quite as harsh or snowy as they used to be.”
Miller is a member of Carroll’s newest student club — Saints for a Healthy Climate. The group is an extension of Montanans for a Healthy Climate and joins two other chapters in the state, at the University of Montana and Montana State.
“Our focus is more concentrated on what we can do at Carroll to reduce our impacts on the local, state and global climate,” Miller said. “We are planning to start with small educational things here at Carroll.”
Growing up on a farm, Miller knows firsthand the consequences that warming temperatures can have on agricultural growers.
While she can’t change the weather, she does hope to create awareness on a local level. That, she believes, will make a difference down the road.
“Having a focused idea is a good place to start,” she said. “On campus, it’s not this broad idea — how do we start? What do we do? We can pick out specific things that will make us more carbon neutral.”
Among them, Miller said, the club wants Carroll to cover its swimming pool. Uncovered, she says, the pool wastes energy used to heat the water.
The school could also consider more energy efficient lighting, she said, or install a biomass heating system.
“Things like that are concrete and you can see tangible results,” she said. “We have a lot of interested people and eager students. I think the students are pretty aware and eager to get the ball rolling. They really want to make those changes.”
Diego Rivas, a member of Montanans for a Healthy Climate, said the group’s campaign for change is gaining strength.
Along with his peers, Rivas is pushing for a federal cap on carbon emissions. He’s also looking to raise awareness on global warming and the impacts it has on the state.
March has warmed from an average of 29 degrees to 33 degrees over the past 40 years, Rivas said. Snowmelt retreats earlier in the season, leaving rivers lower during summer.
Over the long run, that leads to decreased farm production and soil depletion. It also stresses habitat, including Montana’s fisheries — hurting a sport that brings millions of dollars into the state and supports thousands of jobs.
“Montana’s fate over the next century depends on our ability to recognize the problem and take the lead in addressing it,” Rivas said. “Climate change is not only a global problem — it’s a Montana problem.”
Rivas said that while the issue has been brewing for decades, it’s only now hitting home with the general public.
Headlines in Montana newspapers over the past year have given the issue more ink. Environmental advocates like Al Gore have helped raise public awareness.
“Students are the catalyst for change,” Rivas said. “Our goal is to get the younger crowd going. They’re passionate about the issue and they’re keen on finding solutions to the issue.”
March 21st, 2007
The month of March has seen the greatest increase in temperature in Montana. Yesterday’s record highs, reaching into the mid-70s in some locations, seems to be part of this trend. But in reality, it’s not the temperatures themselves that we’re concerned about, it’s the effect these temeperatures have on Montana’s water supply. Once again, winter snowpack has been below average throughout much of the state, and these high temperatures mean early runoff with drought conditions possible later in the year.
From the Great Falls Tribune, March 13th, 2007:
March 13th, 2007
Governor Brian Schweitzer made the following comment today in front of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, of which Sen. Max Baucus is the chair:
“We can’t have a cap-and-trade that is regional…We need a cap-and-trade that is national.”
This is a large endorsement from the Governor, and comes at a time when SJ 20 is making its way through the state senate. SJ 20, if passed, would put the legislature on record, calling for limits in greenhouse gas emissions on the federal level.
To his credit, Sen. Baucus also recently called for a cap-and-trade approach. Montanans for a Healthy Climate supports cap-and-trade and hopes Sen. Baucus will take those statements to task in the near future.
February 27th, 2007
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